quarta-feira, novembro 03, 2010

Tentar perceber IVbis

Vale a pena ler estes excertos do artigo What do markets want? escrito por Kevin O'Rourke, professor de economia da Trinity College, Dublin :

"As it happens, the EMS crisis of 1992-1993 taught us a lot about what markets want. While the context was entirely different, the lessons are still relevant today. Readers will recall that the commitment of peripheral European economies to stick to the Deutschemark was challenged when German interest rates started to rise after German reunification, and countries like Italy and the UK started to suffer serious competitiveness problems. The initial response of politicians was a macho one: get the fundamentals right and the problem would go away. The fundamentals concerned were low inflation, low deficits, and low levels of government debt.
But speculation did not stop. The lesson of the EMS crisis is that low inflation, low deficits and low government debt are not, it turns out, enough on their own. Low unemployment and economic growth are part of the fundamentals which have to be right, if government policies are to be credible in the eyes of the marketsSpeculators bet that governments would not, in the long run, be able to sustain policies which led to rising unemployment: far from enhancing credibility, the 'responsible' and deflationary policies which governments thought markets wanted fatally undermined it. And thus it was that the market forced governments in the UK and elsewhere to adopt policies that were softer, and more growth-oriented, than what orthodoxy had been demanding.

Markets may indeed not be willing to lend to peripheral governments unless they take remedial action to fix their public finances: so be it. But in the long run, markets will not be willing to lend to countries whose economies are continually contracting. This is not just because of the mechanical facts that that shrinking economies will experience rising deficits, and that smaller economies are less able to pay off existing debts -- although these considerations are obviously important. It is also because the markets will eventually start to worry that contractionary economic policies and rising unemployment will not be politically sustainable in the long run.

Furthermore, we should be asking whether the European Union as a whole should embark on a growth and investment strategy. Major European investments in new transportation and energy infrastructures are needed in the long run anyway. If the Union embarked on such a growth strategy now, it would become part of the solution to our problems. If the EU turns itself into a mechanism for imposing asymmetric and deflationary adjustment on the continent, it will be seen, rightly, as one of the causes.

And the markets won't like that. "

Texto colocado a negrito por mim.


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